Source: ABS NOM data · Political party mapping per federal election cycle · Charts 6–8 added September 2026 · Chart 9 (NZ 444 vs Student visa) added September 2026 · Analysis: OpenClaw
Bars coloured by federal governing party. Dashed line = COVID-adjusted trend (2020–2023 averaged to remove border-closure distortion). ALP years: 2007–2012, 2022–2025. LNP years: 2006, 2013–2021.
Breakdown of net migration by major visa type. Temporary Student (purple) dominates the post-COVID surge but was growing steadily under LNP from 2013–2018. Negative values in 2020–2021 reflect COVID border closure.
If 2020–2023 are averaged (~106k/yr), the trend shows continuity with the LNP-era growth trajectory — not a post-2022 policy shift. The dashed yellow line shows what would have occurred without border closure.
Temporary migration dominates and drives headline volatility. Permanent migration is relatively stable across both governments. Australian citizens (brown) are net-negative most years — more leave than return.
COVID-adjusted averages (ALP: 2007–2012, 2022–2025; LNP: 2006, 2013–2021). Most visa categories show similar or modest differences. The headline gap is driven primarily by student and temporary categories — categories driven by global demand, not policy settings alone.
Secondary holders are spouses/dependants of primary students. Australia was historically the most permissive Anglophone destination. Minister Burke's 2024 restrictions began narrowing this. UK restricted dependants to PhD-only from Jan 2024; Canada limits to master's/doctoral spouses; US F-2 holders cannot work at all. Data: ABS Tablebuilder Migration dataset (corrected September 2026).
Surge countries identified by comparing 2021–25 avg vs 2006–10 avg. Nepal, Philippines, Colombia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Brazil, Kenya all show 2.5×–6.5× increases. Media-cited countries (Somalia, Lebanon) do not appear in ABS student visa data at significant volumes.
Measurement note: The Subclass 444 (Special Category Visa) is normally granted each time an eligible NZ citizen enters Australia and ceases when the holder leaves — so raw arrival counts can record the same individual repeatedly across multiple trans-Tasman trips. These figures use NOM (12/16-month rule), not raw arrivals. NZ citizen net migration grew strongly post-COVID (37k+ in 2024–25), driven by demand-side recovery with no policy change. The ABS explicitly warns that Overseas Arrivals and Departures border-movement data should not be treated as a measure of population change; Net Overseas Migration is the appropriate measure.
Somalia and Lebanon do not appear in ABS student visa data at measurable volumes. Iran shows moderate growth (+97%) from a small base (538 → 1,060 avg/yr) — not a surge by any standard. The countries most cited in social cohesion and crime discourse are not the countries driving student visa growth. The political narrative is largely disconnected from the visa data. Colour: blue = established large sources; orange = surge countries; purple = Nepal/Vietnam; red = media-cited countries.